Now and Next: Insights from BCI’s 2026 Investor Day 

Earlier this year, at BCI’s Investor Day, our asset class heads faced a deceptively simple challenge: tell clients what’s happening now in their programs, and what they think is coming next. No hedging, no caveats.

These are the experts who live and breathe these markets every day, building investment strategies to serve BCI’s clients. What followed were candid, informed perspectives from the people who know these markets best.

All figures reflect data as at February 2026 unless otherwise noted.

“Deliberate credit selection, as opposed to broad market exposure, is where long-term value is created within private credit. You don’t just go out and buy a slice of the market—if you do that, you face very tight credit spreads and poor credit selection. Since the portfolio’s inception in 2018, our focus has been on the quality of the portfolio, across geographies, structures, and market cycles, a discipline that positions us well in this market and is reflected in the returns we deliver for our clients.”

– Daniel Garant, EVP & Global Head, Capital Markets & Credit Investments

A crowded credit market 

BCI has been active in private credit since the portfolio launched in 2018. Over that period, the asset class has evolved considerably, growing in scale, sophistication, and the breadth of opportunities it offers investors.

With that growth has come increased competition, particularly in the US, where a large volume of capital has led to an increasingly competitive market, compressing the extra return or spread that lenders earn for taking on credit risk.

The practical consequence is that portfolios built on broad market exposure find themselves exposed to companies regardless of underlying credit quality. For example, software businesses whose models are being disrupted by AI, retail borrowers, and commodity companies exposed to market cycles find their way into these portfolios.

When you buy the market, you get all of it—including the parts you wouldn’t have chosen.

That’s why BCI’s Capital Markets & Credit Investments program takes a different approach.

Why credit selection matters 

BCI’s private debt portfolio offers approximately 550 basis points in credit spread, a premium earned through a strategic decision to focus primarily on credit selection, as opposed to passive market exposure.

Around 65% of BCI’s C$20 billion private debt allocation is in direct loans or co-investments alongside trusted partners. This sets BCI apart from many other investors and brings meaningful advantages that benefit our clients: diversification, deeper relationships, deal selectivity, and lower fees.

When US direct lending spreads compressed through 2025, BCI continued expanding into Europe, Asia Pacific, asset-backed lending, and investment-grade private debt, all strategies offering better spread compensation and fit for our clients’ portfolios.

Overall, the program has shifted its geographic mix. While still maintaining a meaningful exposure in the US, redeployed capital is targeting opportunities in Europe and Asia, offering 25–50 basis points of additional spread.

Built on strong foundations, relationships, and expertise since the private debt program launched, BCI is well positioned for where credit markets are moving.

“I’m cautiously optimistic, moving towards more optimistic on private equity as deal activity slowly recovers. BCI has had a great ten-year run—returns around 16.1%. The platform is well positioned for the market opportunity going forward.”

– Jon Salon, EVP & Global Head, Private Equity  

Now: The private equity market environment today 

Private equity is in a period of meaningful transition. Interest rates have largely stabilized and valuations are moderating from their 2021 peaks, but the market is still working through the consequences of that cycle. An estimated $3.7 trillion in assets are considered “hung assets”: sellers unwilling to accept lower prices, and buyers unwilling to pay peak multiples. Exit markets are gradually improving but liquidity remains constrained. 

The more fundamental shift is structural. Gone are the days where interest rate tailwinds and multiple expansion drive returns. Creating real operational value for our investments by working alongside management teams to create efficiency, accelerate revenue growth, and build more resilient businesses is a growing source of return. That requires a different kind of capability: sector expertise, operational talent, and genuine partnership with GPs and portfolio companies. 

Next: Why we are cautiously optimistic 

BCI Private Equity’s 10-year annualized return of 16.1%¹ reflects a platform that has delivered and one that has spent this period building for what comes next.

As exit markets gradually reopen and valuations continue to moderate, BCI is ready to move. The program has expanded beyond traditional buyouts into recapitalizations, structured equity, and broader capital solutions giving the team greater flexibility to deploy capital across a wider range of opportunities as they emerge. And with offices in New York and London, the team is close to the GP relationships that generate early access to deal flow. 

BCI has long invested in deep sector expertise and has been deliberately deepening it. The team includes sector specialists who understand the industries they invest in well enough to drive pipeline, manage assets, and work alongside management teams to shape real operational outcomes.  

Sustainable portfolio management and value creation is part of that picture too.  For example, BCI and Stanford University have demonstrated that ESG initiatives in private equity generate measurable returns for portfolio companies and investors alike. Read the research. 

¹ As at March 31, 2025

”BCI Infrastructure & Renewable Resources has navigated through a number of bumps in the road—the global financial crisis, euro crisis, COVID, post-COVID inflation. Part of the reason is the highly diversified portfolio across many sectors and countries. When you look at the portfolio level, it’s very resilient.” 

– Lincoln Webb, EVP & Global Head, Infrastructure & Renewable Resources

Now: How the I&RR portfolio has remained resilient 

The resilience of BCI Infrastructure & Renewable Resources isn’t accidental. It’s the result of thoughtful construction and the application of a consistent set of principles over two decades and multiple market cycles: essential assets, defensive capital structures, and broad diversification.  

Today, the portfolio spans 30+ countries, multiple sectors, and invests in essential services that people depend on regardless of economic conditions. Essential assets — electricity, gas, water, digital infrastructure — don’t stop being necessary because markets are volatile. 

These principles have been tested repeatedly. The program has navigated through the global financial crisis, the Euro crisis, COVID and held steady through all of it.  And when post-COVID inflation spiked to near double digits, built-in passthrough mechanisms allowed revenues to increase alongside rising costs. 

Different shocks, different pressures but the result has been a resilient portfolio.  

Next: Positioning for the next decades of growth 

The megatrends that have driven infrastructure investment over the past two decades including digitization, energy security, and decarbonization, show no signs of slowing. And more recently, energy security and food security have come into focus. Globally, an estimated US$40 trillion² in infrastructure investment is needed over the next 20 years to meet demand. Not all of that is accessible to private capital, but the investable opportunity set that meets the program’s risk-return profile remains sizeable. 

Decarbonization is a case in point. Policy uncertainty in the US has caused some capital to pull back from renewables, pushing returns on operating solar and wind assets from 5–6% to 9–10%, while demand for clean, reliable energy isn’t slowing. That gap between retreating capital and growing demand is exactly the kind of opportunity BCI is built to capture.  

Northview Energy is how that opportunity takes shape. BCI recently announced the acquisition of a portfolio of operating solar and wind assets under long-term contracts with high-quality energy buyers. The platform is built to grow with an agreement in place to acquire additional assets as the energy transition continues. 

² Figure expressed in US dollars. 

Sources: BloombergNEF, 2025; Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 2024; International Telecommunication Union, 2025; Climate Policy Initiative and Food and Agriculture Organization, 2024. 

Across every asset class, the message from BCI’s investment leaders is consistent: patient capital enables investor discipline. Walking away from crowded trades. Evolving with market cycles. Building resilient portfolios.

BCI’s focus has always been on the decades ahead, not the next quarter. The measure of success is straightforward: secure financial futures for the people, organizations, and communities that BCI’s clients serve across British Columbia and beyond.

Our 25-year track record speaks for itself. Nearly $300 billion in assets under management. A global presence that gives us access to top talent and the best deals. And the expertise to invest with agility across the capital stack to secure the right opportunities for our clients.

That’s the BCI advantage now: patient capital deployed globally to benefit future generations.

As for what comes next, you’ve heard directly from the people making the calls.